Latest Blog Entries

Coming to Grips with a Low Growth GDP Era

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  • 2 years ago
Let’s face it, we live in a low growth world. The days of 3% and 4% GDP growth rates are long gone. Most of the explanation is purely demographic. Low birth rates mean low workforce growth. Even more, greater portions of the population are spending on fixed budgets as waves of boomers turn 65. So, when the U.S. reports a…

The Stabilization of Oil

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  • 2 years ago
Oil Production Stability and the Road Ahead The recent production freeze between export leaders Russia, Qatar, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia was a critical juncture for oil prices, and may have been underappreciated by U.S. investors. While it won’t satisfy U.S. producers and send oil prices back above $70/barrel, it will likely satisfy markets and stop further price declines. Even more,…

No, Soft Manufacturing is Not Flagging a Recession

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  • 2 years ago
As markets have floundered over the last year, more voices have spoken out regarding the threat of a recession. One area used to support this case points to the soft manufacturing data, especially as revealed in the ISM report. In the following, we’ll expound on why the ISM and other manufacturing data has a lot more to the story than…

Closing out the Death Cross

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  • 2 years ago
Contrary to the late August mania surrounding the Death Cross, the 50 day moving average of the S&P 500 just crossed back above the 200 day moving average with very little fanfare. In response, we offer a comprehensive evaluation of the Death Cross strategy and its' largely detractive investment returns, in spite of the misplaced emphasis it receives. The Death…
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