An Overlooked Source for Economic Growth While there are growing concerns regarding soft manufacturing data and slowing emerging market consumption, many are overlooking an offsetting trend offering new support for growing the US economy. What is this new source of growth? Government spending! As odd as it may sound, it’s government to the rescue. After more or less four years…

Fourth Quarter Favoritism… One curious stock market phenomenon is that of favorable seasonality. It is the concept that investors behave more favorably to stocks at certain times within the calendar versus other times. While tough to explain, we can measure and observe it. To take the examination of fourth quarter favoritism further, we added the following screen: Screen for quarters…

The History on Mid-Cycle Corrections Since 1983, there have been a total of six “mid-cycle” corrections. The emphasis on “mid-cycle” is an important qualifier. It eliminates corrections occurring in the earliest stages of a fragile recovery and corrections occurring with late-stage economic exhaustion.   The most prominent lesson from these six is that they all had very attractive recoveries. Just…

Tracking Market Corrections Alphalytics Research is pleased to announce our new monthly Market Stability Monitor. Subscribers are already familiar with the evidence-based approach to tracking the business cycle and evaluating recession risk. With this new report subscribers will now have access to a valuable resource for tracking and understanding the risk of a substantial equity market decline even when the…