Seasonality in the Markets

Fourth Quarter Favoritism…

One curious stock market phenomenon is that of favorable seasonality. It is the concept that investors behave more favorably to stocks at certain times within the calendar versus other times. While tough to explain, we can measure and observe it.


To take the examination of fourth quarter favoritism further, we added the following screen:

  1. Screen for quarters since 1990, to eliminate the inflationary extremes of the 1970’s and 80’s.
  2. Eliminate recessionary climates according to the Alphalytics Research Systemic Risk Index.

These outcomes are indeed compelling.